Brexit and house prices….

A Personal, bespoke estate agency based in Essex

Brexit and house prices….

I thought i would finally put my thoughts on Brexit in black and white and how i think its going to effect the property market.

Now, i did not vote. why? … because i felt i didn’t understand the implications enough to make an educated vote on what i thought was best…. but, the country has voted and the decision has been made. we are leaving the EU…. for good or for bad.

But something that will effect almost every homeowner is how will it effect the property prices.

so. lets rewind back to the last recession. time and time again we hear how the great crash of 2009 and how it effected almost everything. this is was the last (and most say the worst) crash of our generation…

So according to various website we officially entered into the a recession in the 3rd quarter of 2008 and came out on the last quarter of 2009. so 15 months in total.

i thought i would bring it more localised to show the effects, so we are looking at Rayleigh (SS6) area. according to Zoopla property prices dropped by 11% during this time…. (awful isnt it!)… BUT. if we look at December 2009 to December 2010 so the 12 months following Zoopla records a price increase of 9%.

so 12 month beyond the crash prices were only dropped by 2%… so its not that bad after all… with the average price in Rayleigh being around £350,000 currently that would mean a drop in prices by just 7,000…. which is the scale of things, isnt really much!

So, as we exit the EU. lets say it causes another crash…. the banks are more prepared than before, the government have put plans and processes in place to stop it being as bad as 2008/9 so the chances are it wont be as bad, but for the benefit of doubt, lets say it was…. then you are looking at recovering within 12 months and only losing 2% of value, if 2008/9 is anything to go by.

There you have it. history tells us its not going to be so bad for the property market, and that the UK will carry on, prices will continue to grow (maybe slowly) and supply and demand is always going to be an issue. they cant build houses quicker than the population growing. so supply and demand will always be there…

Now, if you are holding off moving until Brexit happens, i wouldn’t worry. the worst thing to do is to stop and wait as that will effect the market (especially if everybody does the same) BUT, if we carry on. buying and selling the market with keep on going.

What are your thoughts?

2 Responses

  1. Adam says:

    I see the market going the same way as you do. Interest rates are at an all time low so always a good time to buy. Unfortunately the US are still selling sub prime mortgages re labled under another name. So if there is another banking crisis, that will be the cause of it.
    The banking system needs to have a rethink on mortgages and maybe look into the possibility/ viability of the Japanese system of 100 year mortgages. As I can not see a way for the next generation being able to get onto the property ladder with house prices going up all the time.
    Regards, Adam

    • nicholas cheshire says:

      completely agree Adam – 100 year mortgages is a good idea. i think the whole industry needs a bit of a shake up – from Stamp duty, to mortgages, everything needs to be looked at to make it fairer for first time buyers…

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